Usually soccer predictors practice a points rating scheme. The number of points awarded to a team is up to the result of previous matches this team produced. Much more points are given for wins in previous matches than for losing or a draw. Points are given with concern to other statistics of the match like corners, goals scored, shots on goal or other data that bettor considers significant in the working out of a betting system. If a team has high points, it has great winning potential for a next match.
The result of an event is displayed as a distribution of probability. Let’s consider a match between AC Milan (away) and Sampdoria (home), we might arrive at such probability distribution for three possible match results:
Sampdoria vs. AC Milan: Probability Distribution
- Home Win – 55%
- Draw – 25%
- Away Win – 20%
In fact, this distribution of probability shows that the most likely outcome of the game is a Win for Sampdoria. The average distribution of probability of the results of the league match is 46% home win, 27% draw, 27% away win (it works for English league matches), but that doesn’t mean that it makes sense to bet on Sampdoria win. First, to exploit this information in the right way we need to take a look at the betting odds given by the bookie.
Online bookie puts forward fixed odds for games, he adjusts the odds consistent with his assumption as to the outcome of the match. If he believes a home win is more probable to occur rather than a draw or an away win, he will cut down the home win odds accordingly.
Bookmaker’s distribution of probability
- Home Win – 60%
- Draw – 31%
- Away Win – 25%
- Total – 116%
Total comes more than 100% since the surfeit in the probability value is a practicable measure of a profit margin of a bookmaker. The bookmaker affectedly shortens the odds for a specific result of the game, or conversely adds to the estimated likelihood of a result of the match. Consequently, the odds proposed for the game by the bookmaker are not exactly true odds.
It’s quite a difficult task to beat the bookmaker, but it is likely to get an advantage over him if you have a tested forecasting system and betting strategy. The points rating system described above can be a way to get this advantage through careful selection of the match and the observance of the principles of value betting.
If you use a rating system to forecast football match result and apply the value betting theory, it is possible to gain an advantage over the bookmaker, in spite of his considerable over-round and profit margin. You can get soccer match results and statistics at multibetlink.com online soccer betting guide and also betting odds data to stimulate the gambler to work out an analytical approach to football betting.